Podcast Capital Economics terbaik (2024)

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Trump up-ends the macro narrative and the Chinese stimulus that wasn’t 24:23

10h ago24:23

24:23

As the dust settles on that momentous election outcome, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what is known and unknown about the coming Trump administration. He talks about potential guardrails on the president-elect’s policy pledges and talks about how central banks – not least the Fed – can navigate this trickier policy environment. Plus…

1
Special Episode: The US election aftermath and Trump's second coming 13:56

2d ago13:56

13:56

In the wake of Donald Trump’s stunning election victory, our senior economists briefed clients ahead of the New York open on its macro and market implications. In this exclusive clip, you’ll hear Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talking to Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth and Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, on th…

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What this election means for macro and markets and the aftermath of the UK Budget 26:36

7d ago26:36

26:36

Ahead of the year’s big political event, The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics includes an exclusive clip from our client briefing all about what to expect from the US election. Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and the team tackle everything from Kamala Harris’ fiscal plans to how the euro could react to which candidate the Chinese Communist…

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Special Episode: UK Budget – Macro impact, market reaction 13:39

9d ago13:39

13:39

After weeks of leaking and background briefings, Rachel Reeves finally revealed her debut UK Budget. Paul Dales, Diana Iovanel and Andrew Kenningham held an online client briefing about the Chancellor’s tax, borrowing and spending plans and what they mean for the UK economy and markets. This exclusive extract focuses on: What this Budget means for …

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Bond market jitters, UK Budget preview, Trudeau’s immigration U-turn and more 29:44

14d ago29:44

29:44

Perhaps the most frequently asked question of the Capital Economics team is around fiscal risks and their implications for financial markets. There were more incoming this past week as Donald Trump looked to be doing better in the polls and more details about the UK Budget trickled out, all against a backdrop of rising bond yields. Group Chief Econ…

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What Trump gets wrong on tariffs, a super-sized ECB rate cut, EV sales vs oil demand and more 30:38

22d ago30:38

30:38

Donald Trump says ‘tariff’ is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”. That’s up for debate – but what’s less arguable is that raising taxes on imports as much as the Republican presidential candidate is threatening would be bad trade policy, according to Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing. He’s on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing fro…

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Another China stimulus let-down, the Fed and ECB’s next steps, India’s commodities demand and more 23:54

27d ago23:54

23:54

It’s a rare thing for a press conference from China’s Minister of Finance to excite quite so much, but there were widespread hopes in markets that Saturday’s briefing from Lan Fo’an would finally provide the details of fiscal easing plans that had been missing from the government’s stimulus pledges so far. Did Minister Lan deliver? Group Chief Econ…

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Larry Adam and Neil Shearing on the global macro/markets outlook 34:15

1M ago34:15

34:15

Is the US facing a hard landing, a soft landing or no landing? Have stimulus announcements fundamentally changed the China equities story? How should investors trade risks around the US election? Raymond James CIO Larry Adam joins Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. They talk to D…

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Special: Iran's missile strike on Israel and oil market implications 8:59

1M ago8:59

8:59

In the wake of Iran’s missile strike on Israel on Tuesday, Deputy Chief EM Economist Jason Tuvey and David Oxley, our Chief Commodities and Climate Economist, talk about implications for the global oil market, including: What an Israeli retaliation against Iranian oil production could mean for prices; The risks around Iran closing the Strait of Hor…

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China’s stimulus blizzard, the ECB’s quandary, Kamala Harris' housing plan and more 25:06

1M ago25:06

25:06

China’s leadership finally took action this week to staunch the economy’s bleeding with a flurry of stimulus announcements and pledges to do more. But will it be enough? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about whether the outlook for the Chinese economy has fundamentally shifted as a result of a news-packed few days. He also…

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As the Fed gets cutting, where will rates settle? 21:06

2M ago21:06

21:06

After the long-awaited start to the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses next steps. He answers client questions about the risks of inflation bouncing back and explains why we expect rates to settle at levels much higher than before the pandemic. Also, on the show, Lily Millard and Shilan Shah from our emerg…

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Property Special: Retail’s return from the dead and what to expect from its recovery 15:23

2M ago15:23

15:23

Reports of retail’s death have been exaggerated. After a long and painful adjustment, the retail’s potential to deliver decent returns means our commercial real estate team now thinks it’ll be the second best performer among the major sectors over our forecast horizon in both the US and UK. CRE Chief Economist Kiran Raichura and Matt Pointon, our U…

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25 or 50? What the Fed will do, how markets could react, and our new recession indicators 24:06

2M ago24:06

24:06

As the much-anticipated start of Fed easing approaches, the debate has centred on whether Powell & Co. will opt for a 25 or a 50-basis point rate cut. On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses the rationale for a larger move, but also explains why we’re expecting this easing c…

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What that payrolls report means for the Fed, the ECB's balancing act, recession risks and more 12:41

2M ago12:41

12:41

That August payrolls report was one of the more keenly awaited data releases in a while – but what do its details suggest about how the Fed is likely to start monetary easing when it meets later this month? On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth and Group Chief Economist Neil…

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August payrolls preview, China's confused policy moves, key risks to watch and more 20:30

2M ago20:30

20:30

August’s US employment report release on Friday will be the coming week’s must-watch market event. On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks about what we’re expecting and how the outcome could influence the anticipated start of Fed easing this month. Neil also discusses China’s c…

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What Powell said at Jackson Hole, China-India ties in a fractured world and more 18:42

3M ago18:42

18:42

On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Stephen Brown, our Deputy Chief North America Economist, give their take on what Jerome Powell said to the Fed’s annual gathering at Jackson Hole. Neil and Stephen assess the likelihood of the Fed's easing cycle beginning with a 50 basis poi…

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After the summer growth scare – The state of the global economy 13:32

3M ago13:32

13:32

As markets have come roaring back from the recent growth scare, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to Jennifer McKeown, Capital Economics’ Chief Global Economist, about the true state of the global economy and the outlook for policy. Their discussion takes in the latest activity data from across the US, UK, Europe and China, as well as the s…

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Has the global markets storm blown over? 23:38

3M ago23:38

23:38

Global markets appear to have stabilised at the end of a week which began with a nasty bout of volatility. But is the selling in equities over or will fears about the US economy and an unwinding carry trade trigger more pain for investors? Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Jonas Goltermann, Capital Economics’ Deputy Chief Marke…

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Payrolls fallout – The spectre of US recession haunts the stock market 15:10

3M ago15:10

15:10

With that grim July payrolls report triggering fresh selling in US stocks and bond buying on Friday, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join David Wilder to talk about whether there's anything to recession fears, what the Fed will do in the coming weeks and what this all means for equities. Durin…

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What to watch in a jam-packed week of market events 26:45

3M ago26:45

26:45

Chinese PMI, Australian CPI, euro-zone GDP, the new UK chancellor’s statement to Parliament, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Fed…it’s a packed week of releases and central bank meetings and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks through what will be some of the more closely watched market events. In the process, he puts recent US dat…

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Special episode: Who's going to lead the global CRE recovery? 12:12

4M ago12:12

12:12

Which commercial real estate markets are set to recover first, and where will recovery be strongest? The Capital Economics real estate team has been looking closely at the comparative performance of the US, European and UK markets to advise clients on where to find opportunities – and where painful adjustments to the post-pandemic world are likely …

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The global IT outage, China’s growth and reform struggles, an update on the inflation battle and more 31:56

4M ago31:56

31:56

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown speaks about the macroeconomic implications of the global IT outage before going on to explain what’s happening to the world inflation and monetary policy picture. Jenny talks about the challenges posed by sticky services inflation, discusse…

1
'More good data' for the Fed, more election uncertainty and why the ECB won't rush a follow-up 23:57

4M ago23:57

23:57

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth reflects on a couple of crucial inflation reports, explaining how they’ve shifted the disinflation narrative and could even lead to even more aggressive policy easing from the Federal Reserve this year. Paul also discusses with David Wil…

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UK Election Special Briefing – What will Labour do to fix the economy? 25:38

4M ago25:38

25:38

This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics presents our Drop-In briefing to clients the morning after the UK general election. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing spoke to Paul Dales, Ruth Gregory and Ashley Webb from our UK Economics team about the results. During this 25-minute briefing, they highlight key implications for…

1
Biden’s debate stumble and the macro/market context, UK election preview, shipping rates resurgent and more 33:02

4M ago33:02

33:02

In the aftermath of Joe Biden’s poorly received debate performance, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains the market response and highlights potential economic risks around a second Trump presidency. He also reviews the latest US inflation data and talks about the AI’s transformational promise in the wake of a sharp market sell-off in stocks…

1
Bond markets in election season, the stock market bubble, India economic outlook and more 31:25

5M ago31:25

31:25

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews upcoming US inflation data, outlines the fiscal challenges facing the next UK Chancellor and explains how Chinese manufacturing overcapacity isn’t just a problem for advanced economies. Plus, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Golterm…

1
French turmoil, the Fed and BoE in the election cycle, Europe’s EVs tariffs and more 32:25

5M ago32:25

32:25

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks about what’s happening in France and what that means for the bond market. He also assesses the Fed’s June meeting and previews what the Bank of England could decide on Thursday – as well as the discussing how the onset of elections could i…

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Spotlight 2024: US outperformance and the future of global macro and markets leadership 17:09

5M ago17:09

17:09

Will the US continue to dominate the global economy in the coming years? Will China or Europe ever catch up? Is the US where investors will continue to see stronger stock market returns? The question of US outperformance runs to the heart of the global economic outlook and is the subject of our Spotlight project for 2024. Spotlight is our annual st…

1
ECB Special: A key moment in the post-pandemic monetary cycle 14:40

5M ago14:40

14:40

The European Central Bank is likely to become the first major advanced economy central bank to cut rates since the end of the pandemic when it meets this Thursday – easing policy ahead of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. It’s a move that’s been well flagged by ECB officials, but it’s also one that they probably wouldn’t have signalled q…

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Election fever, US/euro-zone inflation previews, AI and productivity and more 35:12

6M ago35:12

35:12

How important are elections for the trajectory of economies? The latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics explains why the just-announced general election may not be hugely consequential for the UK economy, but also why South Africa’s vote this coming Wednesday could prove momentous. In the show, Group Chief Economist Neil Shear…

1
Biden’s latest China salvo, the stock market bubble revisited, UK CPI preview and more 34:37

6M ago34:37

34:37

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing addresses the White House announcement of higher tariffs on Chinese goods and what that signals about the direction of the global economic system. He also reviews the latest US inflation data and explains what to expect from the coming week’s UK…

1
What’s missing from the China overcapacity row, that UK GDP data and an exclusive inflation briefing 28:56

6M ago28:56

28:56

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what the latest signals from the Bank of England and that Q1 UK GDP report mean in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. He also previews the coming week’s US inflation data, tells David Wilder why EM monetary easing will need to slow and puts the US current account deficit in…

1
Payrolls relief, oil and the US election, the RBA’s next move and more 30:12

6M ago30:12

30:12

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks a tumultuous week that ended on a high. April's soft payrolls report may have given the market much-needed evidence that US disinflationary forces are gathering, but will that sway the Fed? And what can investors expect from the Bank of …

1
That Fed rate hike noise, China trip notes and EM FX challenges 31:08

6M ago31:08

31:08

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews the coming week’s Fed meeting, tackles market talk that the next move on the US policy rate could be up, addresses an intriguing report about Fed independence and decries the absence of a grown-up conversation around fiscal commitments. Julian Evans-Pritchard…

1
Overcooked inflation fears, the end of the excess savings debate and a global markets briefing 29:10

7M ago29:10

29:10

In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing assesses just how much the global inflation picture has really changed in the wake of that US March CPI print. He talks to David Wilder about which central banks are likely to cut when, previews a busy week of economic data and explains why a s…

1
Janet Yellen's Beijing trip and the Chinese overcapacity threat 19:30

7M ago19:30

19:30

Janet Yellen lent official voice to resurgent global worries about the threat of Chinese overcapacity when she pointedly criticised Beijing’s overinvestment and underpowered consumption during her trip there earlier this month. But are the US Treasury Secretary’s criticisms justified? Will China’s leaders push through the necessary reforms to bring…

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Emerging markets special: An EM risk early warning system and EMs and the green transition 20:11

7M ago20:11

20:11

The EM team has taken over the podcast this week to highlight two of the biggest issues in emerging market investing. William Jackson talks to Shilan Shah about how emerging market economies will fare as fossil fuels are phased out in favour of green technologies. From oil producers in the Gulf and Africa to geopolitics and supply chains, William a…

1
Baltimore bridge collapse, our Global Economic Outlook, Trump vs Canada and Mexico and more 24:49

8M ago24:49

24:49

Before Neil Shearing gets on to discussing the key takeaways from our latest Global Economic Outlook, he talks to David Wilder about the inflationary risks stemming from the collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge at Baltimore’s port. The Capital Economics Group Chief Economist also explains what to make of the apparent contradiction of US busines…

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What’s gone wrong with the German economy? 18:32

8M ago18:32

18:32

Germany's economy is in “troubled waters” and doing “dramatically badly” – and those are just the assessments of its economy minister. But are the recessionary conditions in the euro-zone’s biggest economy merely a cyclical blip or signs of deeper structural malaise? In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief…

1
Fed week! The BoJ’s big moment, TikTok and fracturing, Putin’s war economy and more 22:42

8M ago22:42

22:42

A few hot(ish) US inflation prints has spooked the market about how easily the Federal Reserve can get back to its 2% target. In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses whether those fears are justified and tells David Wilder what to expect from the coming week’s meetings from…

1
The coming collapse of Chinese construction and Fed rate cuts vs the stock bubble 24:47

8M ago24:47

24:47

The good news is our China team has solved a mystery about Chinese property construction: why has it held up so well, even as sales and starts have collapsed? The bad news is that their conclusions point to a painful adjustment with massive implications for China’s growth and policy outlook. With Neil Shearing out this week, Chief Asia Economist Ma…

1
The coming clash over Chinese oversupply, the UK budget vs the bond market, the carbon price outlook and more 29:51

8M ago29:51

29:51

China. Inflation. Trump. In this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Neil Shearing addresses some of the questions which kept coming up during a recent round of client meetings in the Middle East and Asia. (00.00-10:15) Also on the show, Paul Dales and Ruth Gregory from our UK team preview the coming week’s Spring Budget a…

1
Trump trade wars, stock market bubbles, Japan's market comeback and the world in 2050 30:37

9M ago30:37

30:37

For all the blustering about trade wars, the fact is that Donald Trump’s punitive actions against China during his presidency didn’t do much to hurt its economy. But it’ll be a very different story if he wins in November and makes good on his pledge to slap tariffs up to 60% on Chinese imports. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wil…

1
How to think about recessions, fiscal shackles, financial instability risks and more 18:43

9M ago18:43

18:43

In a week in which UK and Japanese data both confirmed two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains why the concept of “recessions” can be unhelpful in understanding the state of economies. He also tells David Wilder why, whoever wins in upcoming elections, governments on both sides of the Atlantic are l…

1
Inflation rebound risk, bank real estate exposure, Trump trade wars and dollar and EM outlooks 35:14

9M ago35:14

35:14

We’re trying a ‘quickfire round’ on this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to get Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing answering the questions that clients have been asking most frequently in recent days: Could inflation rebound? Could escalation in the Middle East drive up inflation? Are falling commercial real estate val…

1
A bumper US jobs report, central banks and labour markets and that wave of US CRE loans 25:18

9M ago25:18

25:18

If Jerome Powell dampened talk of a March rate cut on Wednesday then the January payrolls report on Friday stamped it out for good. In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing dives into the latest US jobs numbers to discuss what they say about the health of the labour market and what the…

1
Fed week! China's stimulus blizzard, Houthi inflation risk and more 27:00

10M ago27:00

27:00

Post-ECB and pre-Fed and Bank of England meetings, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what 'data dependency' means for central banks as they try to gauge when to begin rate cuts – and to manage the market’s expectations about when those cuts will start. David Wilder is also joined by Deputy Chief Global Economist Simon MacAdam to discuss …

1
Inflation's "last mile", an ECB preview, China data discrepancies, and maximum bullish on US stocks 24:03

10M ago24:03

24:03

Why are markets pushing back on rate cut expectations? How will the ECB play its upcoming meeting? What’s really happening to China’s economy? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles the big macro and market questions in our latest episode of The Weekly Briefing. Plus, our forecast for the S&P 500 this year is one of the most bullish in the mar…

1
Macro in a more dangerous world, UK CPI preview, bond vigilantes, and the US energy export surge 22:17

10M ago22:17

22:17

With US and UK strikes on Houthis in the headlines and Taiwanese voting in their flashpoint election, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpicks what the now- clichéd idea that we live in a “more dangerous world” actually means for thinking through macro risk. He discusses with David Wilder our framework for looking at a world that’s fracturing in…

1
2024’s uncertain start, US CPI preview, Taiwan's flashpoint election and more 23:13

10M ago23:13

23:13

The Fed-triggered financial market exuberance which ended 2023 hasn’t carried into the new year, with yields rising and equities struggling. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what’s changed – and what hasn’t – to explain this mood shift. In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Neil also talks to David Wilder about the latest euro-…

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