Turkey fears new wave of refugees as Israel continues Lebanon offensive

International report

More than 400,000 people have fled to Syria to escape Israel's military operations in Lebanon, according to the United Nations. With the numbers expected to grow as Israel steps up its offensive, neighbouring Turkey, already home to the world's largest number of refugees, fears a new wave of people seeking sanctuary.

Over 405,000 people – both Lebanese and Syrian – have crossed into Syria from Lebanon since the start of Israel's offensive, according to figures from UN refugee agency UNHCR.

Approximately 60 percent are under 18, UN spokesman Farhan Haq said on Thursday, and most are struggling to meet basic needs.

The returnees are mainly people who had sought sanctuary in Lebanon from the civil war in Syria, now in its 13th year. "In Lebanon, there have been nearly one million Syrian refugees just since 2011," says Metin Corabatir of the Research Centre on Asylum and Migration, an Ankara-based NGO.

He warns this could be just the beginning of the exodus if the fighting in Lebanon continues, threatening to overwhelm Syria.

"We are not talking only about Syrian refugees going back to Syria, but the Lebanese population is moving, crossing the border to Syria. And Syria would either try to close the borders or force them to go north to the Turkish borders," Corabatir told RFI.

"This really would lead to a catastrophic situation for people, for countries and may pull Turkey into more tensions with Israel."

Anti-refugee backlash

People fleeing Lebanon have been arriving at refugee camps in north-east Syria, close to the Turkish border. But Turkey, already hosting an estimated five million refugees, including over three million Syrians, is facing growing public backlash over their presence.

"Turkey basically cannot handle more refugees," warns Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, an international think tank.

Earlier this year, tensions spilled over into violence against refugees in the provincial city of Kayseri. The issue has become a significant political liability for the government, with opinion polls routinely finding large majorities wanting refugees to leave.

Even if the country has the practical capacity to take more people in, "I don't see Turkey accepting a massive new wave of refugees", predicts Unluhisarcikli.

Turkey's Syrian refugees face local hostility as economic problems mount

Border barricades

In the last couple of years, Ankara has constructed a wall along its border with Syria in a bid to prevent more refugees from entering Turkey.

Murat Aslan, of the pro-government Seta Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, believes such efforts will only continue as the war in the Middle East threatens to trigger a new exodus.

"Turkey does not want any further waves coming from another region because Turkey is just experiencing and mending an economic crisis," he says. "Inflation is currently under control, and we expect a decrease in it.

"What does another wave of refugees mean? A lot of spending, a lot of inflation, and other than this, societal insecurity. That's why Turkey will not tolerate another wave."

But such a stance will likely be tested if Israel continues its offensive, creating more refugees and with them, the risk of Turkey facing a humanitarian crisis on its border.

Turkey continues to host more refugees than anyone else, but for how long?