Podcast Niskanen Center The Science Of Politics terbaik (2024)

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Can we believe the polls? 1:10:03

6d ago1:10:03

1:10:03

Polls missed the 2016 election outcome and did even worse in 2020 on the margin, underestimating Donald Trump again. Should we believe the polls this time? What have pollsters changed? Have they overcorrected? In an era of one percent response rates for phone surveys and opt-in Internet panels, should we even talk about them in the same way? Michae…

1
Are Black voters moving to Trump? 49:23

20d ago49:23

49:23

Pre-election polls show Black voters moving toward Donald Trump in 2024, even though he is now running against Kamala Harris. And Trump did gain a bit of margin among Black voters in 2020 compared to 2016, though he still loses nine out of ten. Should Democrats fear more attrition among Black voters this year or is it just a mirage from bad polling…

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How 'Woke' Are We? 59:21

1M ago59:21

59:21

In the last 12 years, academic language about structural inequality made its way to media and popular discourse, leading to conservative critiques of “wokeness.” But how much really changed beneath the surface in our elite institutions? Musa Al-Gharbi finds that wokeness has peaked after it was the product of socio-economic trends in the profession…

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How the campaigns battle for electoral college victory 52:27

2M ago52:27

52:27

Presidential campaigns narrow the battleground to an ever-smaller group of potentially pivotal states—where they spend most of their time and money in the race to 270 electoral votes. How do presidential campaigns envision and select their paths to victory? And how much do these decisions matter? Daron Shaw takes us inside the presidential campaign…

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How the diploma divide transformed American politics 54:46

2M ago54:46

54:46

College-educated voters are moving toward the Democrats, with the less educated moving toward the Republicans. Will 2024 continue the pattern or reverse the trend? What will that mean for the culture war that has engulfed the nation and refocused the political parties? David Hopkins breaks down the consequences of the diploma divide, from woke busi…

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Are American parties reviving or hollow? 58:30

2M ago58:30

58:30

After years of signs that the American parties were institutionally weak and vulnerable to takeover, Democratic Party elites coalesced to quickly replace their presidential candidate. But a longer historical sweep suggests it will not be a quick return to parties’ traditional roles. Daniel Schlozman and Sam Rosenfeld find that Democrats and Republi…

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What research on Black women candidates means for Kamala Harris 52:49

3M ago52:49

52:49

Vice President Kamala Harris has replaced Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee. And the conversation has immediately turned to race and gender. What do we know about how Black and Asian women candidates are treated by parties and voters? How does the Harris experience compare to others running for office? What does it mean for her ability to win in …

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Can American identity reduce partisan animosity? 42:27

3M ago42:27

42:27

In the midst of a harrowing political campaign, can Americans tone down their partisanship and unify around their common American values? Matthew Levendusky finds that Americans misperceive those in the other party and can improve their views if they are reminded of our shared national identity. From the Olympics to the 4th of July, some moments re…

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How think tanks drive polarization and policy 56:43

4M ago56:43

56:43

Democrats and Republicans rely on partisan think tanks for policy proposals, along with the numbers and findings that justify them. How did think tank research reach a central place in our politics and how influential are they? E. J. Fagan finds that partisan think tanks like the Heritage Foundation helped polarize the congressional issue agenda an…

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White racial sympathy 45:08

4M ago45:08

45:08

The impact of racial attitudes in American politics isn’t just about the presence or absence of anti-Black prejudice. Some White Americans say they are highly sympathetic to the plight of Black Americans. Are they just placing Black Lives Matter signs in their yards or does it translate into political views and actions? Jennifer Chudy finds that ma…

1
The impact of policy misinformation 55:22

5M ago55:22

55:22

We have overestimated the influence of partisan misinformation during political campaigns. But that doesn't mean we're well-informed. Americans know little about important public policy issues and they "know" things that aren’t so. Emily Thorson finds that Americans concoct information about current policy to match what they think they know. It's n…

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When third parties matter 58:34

5M ago58:34

58:34

Robert F. Kennedy Jr is polling higher than prior third party candidates and his supporters could make the difference in a close election. Americans say they want a third party, but is this what they had in mind? Jonathan Cervas finds that in 2020, third parties actually took more potential votes from Republicans than Democrats. Victor Wu finds tha…

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Why foreign policy is still bipartisan 58:32

6M ago58:32

58:32

Despite popular resistance in each party, Congress just reached wide bipartisan agreement on military aid to Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan along with a forced sale of TikTok. Even in a polarized age, Congress has managed bipartisan votes on controversial issues in an election year. Jordan Tama finds that bipartisan coalitions are quite common in cong…

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Does the Biden economy have bad election timing or an unfair fed? 56:58

6M ago56:58

56:58

Joe Biden is facing re-election shepherding an unsteady economy through high interest rates. Is this Democrats' bad economic luck repeating itself? Joe Stone finds that Democratic presidents have regularly expanded economies at the beginning of their terms but Republicans benefit from expanded economies leading up to the election. And partisan misa…

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The Politics of Our Jobs 53:32

7M ago53:32

53:32

Our jobs shape our politics, including whether we run for office and which side of the political spectrum makes us feel most comfortable. Just as we are polarizing geographically, even our workplaces are now more likely to be filled with those who agree with us about politics. And our politicians come from these workplaces, often taking the specifi…

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How will TikTok change politics? 52:12

7M ago52:12

52:12

Congress is fearful of TikTok’s influence, but America’s young people increasingly see it as a key platform for learning about and spreading political ideas. Will TikTok get young people engaged in the 2024 election or serve as another distraction? Neta Kligler-Vilenchik finds that young people embody an expressive citizenship, where you should spe…

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How race makes us less punitive on opioid policy 52:40

8M ago52:40

52:40

The opioid crisis has not abated, but so far policy has remained far less punitive than for prior drug epidemics. Is that because it has been characterized and seen as a “white” drug problem? Could it take a more punitive turn if its connotations change? Tanika Raychaudhuri finds that sympathetic media coverage makes Whites more supportive of treat…

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Do Voters Dislike Old Candidates 47:02

8M ago47:02

47:02

We are headed toward a replay of 2020, with the oldest candidates ever nominated for president. How much does candidate age matter in elections and how do voters judge older and younger options? If voters are disappointed with older candidates, why do they keep electing a gerontocracy?Jennifer Wolak finds that voters do stereotype older and younger…

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Lessons from the COVID-era Welfare Expansion 57:40

9M ago57:40

57:40

COVID brought expansions of social welfare programs and increased flexibility. But many of the changes expired. Now Congress is considering a bit of a revival of the child tax credit expansion, but recipients of traditional welfare programs won’t see equivalent gains. Did policymakers learn the right lessons from the successes and failures of COVID…

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How Bureaucrats Deal with Political Chaos Above 48:56

9M ago48:56

48:56

With the prospect of a second emboldened Trump administration on offer, the administrative state is under attack. How well did the bureaucracy deal with Trump appointees? Was there really a resistance in a "deep state"? And how much are career civil servants affected by chaos and turnover in the political class that sit above them? Jaime Kucinskas …

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Elites Misperceive the Public 53:45

9M ago53:45

53:45

Are political elites in bubbles, out of touch with the American public, not recognizing how their views and conditions are not reflective of most people’s experience? Prior research found that elites tend to overestimate conservative policy positions in the American public, but there are wider misperceptions across the political spectrum. Alexander…

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The Deterioration of Congress 58:10

10M ago58:10

58:10

After a year of minimal lawmaking, the public is disappointed with Congress. And the members don’t seem very happy either, but they are not changing their behavior. How much has Congress deteriorated and why? Alex Theodoridis has a new survey of former members of Congress to explore their insights on what ails Congress. We discuss January 6th and p…

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The Two Sides of Immigration Backlash 1:03:42

10M ago1:03:42

1:03:42

Voters are upset about disarray at the US-Mexico border and the increase in illegal crossings under President Biden. But they also reacted negatively to former president Trump’s crackdowns. In both ways, immigration has become more important in our politics, making it more like Europe. Ernesto Tiburcio finds that flows of unauthorized migrants into…

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Previewing 2024: How Voters Judge Presidents 47:27

11M ago47:27

47:27

Despite relatively strong economic data, the public is sour, judging President Biden poorly and putting him even or below former President Trump in early polling. How will polls and economic assessments evolve as we approach the 2024 election? Robert Erikson finds that early polls are not predictive but that presidents will eventually be judged by …

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Do presidents have the power to act alone? 53:25

11M ago53:25

53:25

Courts have overruled key policy changes from President Biden acting alone. But Republicans are gearing up to enact a suite of policy changes on Day 1 of a potential new administration, reigniting fears of an imperial presidency. Jon Rogowski finds that presidents act unilaterally quite often, beyond executive orders to include a lot of other tools…

Podcast Layak Disimak

Niskanen Center The Science Of Politics Podcast

Podcast Layak Disimak

1
The Science of Politics

Niskanen Center

1
Can we believe the polls? 1:10:03

1
Are Black voters moving to Trump? 49:23

1
How 'Woke' Are We? 59:21

1
How the campaigns battle for electoral college victory 52:27

1
How the diploma divide transformed American politics 54:46

1
Are American parties reviving or hollow? 58:30

1
What research on Black women candidates means for Kamala Harris 52:49

1
Can American identity reduce partisan animosity? 42:27

1
How think tanks drive polarization and policy 56:43

1
White racial sympathy 45:08

1
The impact of policy misinformation 55:22

1
When third parties matter 58:34

1
Why foreign policy is still bipartisan 58:32

1
Does the Biden economy have bad election timing or an unfair fed? 56:58

1
The Politics of Our Jobs 53:32

1
How will TikTok change politics? 52:12

1
How race makes us less punitive on opioid policy 52:40

1
Do Voters Dislike Old Candidates 47:02

1
Lessons from the COVID-era Welfare Expansion 57:40

1
How Bureaucrats Deal with Political Chaos Above 48:56

1
Elites Misperceive the Public 53:45

1
The Deterioration of Congress 58:10

1
The Two Sides of Immigration Backlash 1:03:42

1
Previewing 2024: How Voters Judge Presidents 47:27

1
Do presidents have the power to act alone? 53:25

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