Evan Silva’s Matchups: Bills at Jets

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Monday Night Football

Buffalo @ N.Y. Jets

Team Totals: Bills 21.5, Jets 19.5

Allegedly fired without Aaron Rodgers’ consent, former Jets HC Robert Saleh was singlehandedly responsible for limiting Josh Allen to 6.2, 9.8, 7.4, and 21 passing points over the past two seasons. Allen’s terrible back-to-back starts against the Ravens (QB28) and Texans (QB17) included crumbling under pressure for a 30% completion rate (31st) and 3.6 yards per attempt (27th). Note that the Jets get after opposing QBs at the second-highest rate (39.8%). … James Cook (foot/toe) is expected to play after logging a limited practice on Saturday and tying his season-high mark in touches (22) in Week 5’s loss. Ty Johnson ran more routes than Cook for the first time all year against the Texans, standing out as a cheap piece for one-game slates. No RB has rushed for over 80 yards against the Jets since Jordan Mason (28/147/1) did so in Week 1, pouring cold water on Cook’s RB2 ceiling in this spot. Rookie Ray Davis should be stashed over Johnson for the higher ceiling if Cook were injured.

Khalil Shakir’s Week 5 absence (ankle) was felt most underneath, where he’s bailed out Allen with a 5.3-yard depth of target and ensuing 141 yards after the catch (15th). Shakir’s pending (if not likely) absence with an ankle injury spells further trouble for Allen given Curtis Samuel’s abysmal 34 snaps in the former’s stead, handling two touches for -1 yards in Houston. Samuel can be dropped in 12-team leagues. … Dependent on long touchdowns (which he’s more than capable of) for weekly relevance, No. 33 overall pick Keon Coleman spiked 1/49/1 sans Shakir in Week 5 but did so on less than 20% of Buffalo’s targets — a mark he’s eclipsed once all year. New York’s secondary has permitted the third-fewest catches on targets 10 yards deep, where Coleman has earned 56% of his opportunity. … Mack Hollins has yet to achieve 30 receiving yards in any game with the Bills but did play from 3-WR sets (64% route rate) against Houston. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has totaled 2/26/0 to date. … Unlike Weeks 1-4 when Dalton Kincaid averaged just 22 Air Yards per game, Buffalo increased his downfield usage with 98 Air Yards and a position-high 16.8-yard aDOT. Kincaid stands to benefit from Shakir’s absence the most after registering six (23%) of Allen’s targets in Week 5. The additional 24 hours between kickoffs could also force Dawson Knox into the playbook behind Kincaid.

Nearly fired from his DC duties before being promoted (lol Jets) for Saleh’s absence, interim HC Jeff Ulbrich debuts with a “run-heavy” commitment and 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers fighting through a low ankle sprain (with eight sacks taken) since Week 4. The team’s long off-week following their loss in London was ideally enough time to game-plan against a Bills secondary that’s permitted one multi-touchdown performance. Regardless, Rodgers remains unusable for 1-QB leagues. … Breece Hall tallied 18 fantasy points in three consecutive games to begin the year but has since drowned for 3.8 and 6.7 with 24 touches (61.5% share) to Braelon Allen’s 15 (38.4%) the past two weeks. Although Breece’s target share has progressively dipped in four consecutive games, his on-field usage remains superior to Allen’s with the seventh-highest route participation (51.9%) and, more importantly, every RB touch (5) inside the 10. Buffalo’s league-worst 5.2 yards per carry allowed cements Hall in his best on-paper matchup of the season. Allen remains a fringe RB3 (and elite contingency stash) to pad for byes on 12-team rosters.

Garrett Wilson’s 22 targets (for a 43.1% share) on the surface were barely enough to reach 100 receiving yards (13/101/1) as the overall WR5 on the week, featuring a career-low 8.3-yard aDOT as a clear sell-high through five appearances with Rodgers. Buffalo has permitted the third-fewest points per game to enemy WRs, leaving Wilson with a questionable WR2 ceiling for showdown. For what it’s worth, both Nico Collins (2/78/1) and Stefon Diggs (6/82/0) most recently got there against the Bills. … Allen Lazard’s team-high marks in end-zone targets (3) and touchdowns (4) keep him entrenched as a boom-bust WR5/FLEX for 14-team leagues. The fact he never leaves the field, running a route on 100% of dropbacks in London, only helps. … Gadget rookie Malachi Corley was healthy-scratched in Week 5, elevating Big Mike Williams to a season-high 81% route rate from 3-WR sets. Much like Lazard’s touchdown-or-bust outlook, BMW’s team-high 14.1-yard aDOT leaves the light on to backdoor a ceiling performance. … Tyler Conklin (hip) is truly questionable for Monday night, compiling at least four catches (with an 18.2% target share) in three straight starts compared to his poor opportunity (6.8% share) in his first two games. 2022 third-rounder Jeremy Ruckert (6-foot-5/250) is the next man up if Conklin can’t go for an offense targeting its TEs at the third-lowest rate (13.9%).

Score Prediction: Jets 17, Bills 14