Remember When We Were Gonna Run Out of Soybean Oil?? LOL

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here's the latest update on soybean purchases, harvest progress, winter wheat conditions, and export sales! 🌾📉
🥜 Soybean Purchases Decline
Major grain traders like Cargill and Bunge have scaled back soybean purchases due to uncertainty surrounding the 45Z tax credit.
Biodiesel producers, who typically secure over 80% of their feedstocks for the first quarter by mid-October, have only obtained about 10% of those this year.
Delays in guidance from the Treasury Department for the upcoming tax credit, set to begin in January, are causing concern. The outcome of the upcoming election could also influence the future of this subsidy.
🌽 Rapid Harvest Progress
The US corn crop is progressing quickly, with 81% harvested nationally as of Sunday, compared to 65% the previous week and 64% on average. This marks the fastest harvest since 2012.
States that have harvested 85% or more include: Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas.
The US soybean harvest is also advanced, with 89% harvested nationally, up from 81% the prior week and 78% on average. This pace is the fastest since 2010.
States with 95% or more harvested include: Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
🌾 Winter Wheat Conditions
Winter wheat conditions are reported as the second worst on record, with only 38% rated as good to excellent, below the 43% average.
This year’s ratings are worse across nearly all states compared to last year, with the exception of California, Kansas, Michigan, and Oregon.
As of Sunday, 80% of the winter wheat crop is planted, up from 73% the previous week but below the 84% average.
🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Planting
Brazilian farmers have made progress in soybean planting, reaching 36% of the expected area as of last Thursday, compared to 40% last year.
Despite lagging behind last year's pace, the area planted last week saw an 18% gain, with Mato Grosso accounting for half of the newly planted acres thanks to consistent rainfall.
52% of Brazil's first corn crop has been planted, slightly down from 53% last year.
🚢 US Export Sales
US soybean shipments declined last week but remain robust:
2.4mmt (88 million bushels) were inspected for export, down 6.1% from the previous week but up 17% year-over-year, with over 60% going to China.
Corn shipments totaled 823,664mt (32 million bushels), a drop of 18% from the previous week but an increase of 52% compared to last year.
Wheat shipments came in at 248,534mt (9 million bushels), down 7.4% from the prior week but up 25% year-over-year.
📦 Flash Sales Update
USDA reported two flash sales of corn on Monday:
124,000mt (5 million bushels) sold to Japan for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
120,000mt (5 million bushels) sold to unknown destinations for the same marketing year.
Since the beginning of October, exporters have sold 5.4mmt (211 million bushels) of corn via flash sales.
Conclusion
As harvests progress rapidly, traders are adapting to changes in soybean purchasing and the implications of potential tax credit changes. Meanwhile, strong export sales are supporting the market amid ongoing challenges related to drought conditions and planting delays. 🌽📈