A year-long defense crisis. As 2024 comes to a close, Ukraine and Russia brace for the looming battle over Pokrovsk

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Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates as of December 28, 2024

Ahead of any potential negotiations following Donald Trump’s January 20 inauguration, the Kremlin is trying to expand its territorial control in Ukraine’s Donbas. Russian forces are close to completing three major operations in the south and center of the region, bringing them near to encircling Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove. At the same time, Russian troops are positioning for the next phase of the conflict, advancing on Pokrovsk from the south and west to lay the groundwork for a potential encirclement of the city. Meanwhile, in Russia’s Kursk region, despite the addition of North Korean troops, Russian forces remain far from eliminating the Ukrainian foothold Kyiv intends to use as a “bargaining chip” in negotiations.

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Ukraine

Velyka Novosilka

Russian forces are tightening their ring around Velyka Novosilka, a key district center on the border of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. They aimed to push Ukrainian forces up against the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly River inside the village itself (most of which lies east of the river). To achieve this, Russian forces needed to cut off the road leading north to Pokrovsk. Encircling and storming the village was also intended to facilitate reaching the high ground on the river’s western bank and enable attacks along the Mokri Yaly River valley from the south.

Despite facing setbacks, Russian troops managed to achieve this. In early December, they severed the critical road north near the village of Novyi Komar. Ukrainian commanders deployed reinforcements and managed to retake both the road and the village. However, just a few days ago, Russian forces launched a renewed offensive and once again cut off the road.

At the same time, Russian troops attacked in the southern Mokri Yaly valley, encircling Ukrainian units defending the villages of Makarivka and Storozheve. Most of the encircled Ukrainian troops appear to have escaped to the north.

While pursuing the retreating forces, Russian troops reached the heights near Neskuchne and Vremivka, which overlook the entire river valley and Velyka Novosilka. The village is now effectively surrounded: the northern road is cut off, and Russian airstrikes continue targeting river crossings along the Mokri Yaly, preventing Ukrainian forces from supplying their garrison.

Kurakhove

The Russian command’s plan to capture Kurakhove involves encircling the city with coordinated advances from the north, by the group that took Selydove and Hirnyk, and from the south, by troops that occupied Vuhledar. These two groups were expected to converge near the western edge of the Kurakhove Reservoir or further west at the village of Kostyantynopil.

So far, this hasn’t happened. Ukrainian forces still hold the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia road west of Kurakhove, which is critical for supplying their garrison in the industrial zone on the city’s western outskirts.

However, the situation for Ukrainian forces continues to worsen. After Russian troops encircled and captured Ukrainian strongholds along the Sukhi Yaly River southeast of Kurakhove, they quickly advanced westward along the river toward Kostyantynopil, leaving a clear hole in Ukraine’s defenses. Russian forces are now just four kilometers (two and a half miles) from Kostyantynopil and the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia road, with no water barriers in their way.

From the north, Russian troops have reached the Kurakhove Reservoir dam on the Vovcha River and are advancing westward toward Kostyantynopil, where the Sukhi Yaly meets the Vovcha. Russian airstrikes have destroyed bridges over both rivers near Kostyantynopil, making it difficult for Ukraine to send reinforcements to the area.

These developments put Ukrainian forces at risk of a new, larger encirclement within Kurakhove itself. At the same time, Russian assault units have already taken control of central Kurakhove, including administrative buildings and high-rise residential areas, forcing Ukrainian troops back into the industrial zone on the city’s western edge.

Holding the industrial zone is no longer a viable option. The Ukrainian command must urgently establish a defensive line along the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia road to the west of the city to prevent another Russian breakthrough.

Pokrovsk

When Russian troops captured the city of Selydove in the fall, they created a gap in Ukraine’s defenses between Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. Subsequent troop movements suggest that the Russian command intended to exploit this breach by deploying significant forces into the area.

In December, Russian forces pushed 10 kilometers (over six miles) deep into Ukrainian defenses, reaching the Pokrovsk–Kostyantynopil–Velyka Novosilka road, just five kilometers (three miles) south of Pokrovsk. Fierce fighting erupted near the village of Shevchenko, where Ukrainian reinforcements from Pokrovsk attempted to counter the advance. Although Russian forces captured the village, Ukrainian armored units repeatedly attacked their positions on its outskirts.

Ukrainian reserves also launched assaults toward Novotroitske, a Russian-occupied village west of Shevchenko. However, Russian troops repelled these attacks and advanced further westward. It doesn’t appear that the Russian command is planning an immediate assault on Pokrovsk. Instead, their forces are pushing westward, likely preparing for an attempt to encircle Pokrovsk in 2025.

Russian troops are now just five kilometers from Udachne, a village west of Pokrovsk near the country’s largest coking coal mine. However, they’re separated from Udachne by the natural barrier of the Solona River, where Ukrainian forces may attempt to establish a new defensive line.

Meanwhile, Russian troops are advancing in two directions: northward from the area east of Shevchenko toward Pokrovsk’s southern outskirts, and westward along the Solona River valley and through the village of Pushkine, where Ukrainian defenses appear thin.

Despite reinforcements being sent to Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces clearly lack the strength to counter all these threats simultaneously.

Russia

Kursk region

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered that Ukrainian troops be driven out of Russia’s Kursk region, likely in preparation for potential negotiations following Donald Trump’s inauguration. However, despite initial gains by Russian forces in the fall, Ukrainian troops have managed to establish a strong defensive position around Sudzha.

Russia’s strategy involved coordinated strikes along the border from both the west and east, aiming to force Ukrainian forces to retreat into Ukraine’s Sumy region to avoid encirclement. However, on the western flank, the offensive stalled near the village of Novoivanovka, where Ukraine deployed substantial reserves. Attempts to outflank Ukrainian forces at Novoivanovka with a northern assault via Malaya Loknya in November failed. Russian troops suffered heavy losses but were still unable to break through.

In the east, Russian troops struggled for weeks trying to capture the village of Plekhovo near the Psel River. However, in December, North Korean forces began fighting alongside Russian troops across the entire Kursk front. According to Russian war bloggers, North Korean troops were responsible for the capture of Plekhovo and crossing the Psel near the village of Kurilovka. North of Sudzha, Russian forces, supported by North Korean units, advanced to the outskirts of Malaya Loknya.

Still, despite these developments, Ukraine’s defense in the Kursk region is far from being in a full-blown crisis. As long as Ukrainian forces control the roads from Sudzha and the nearby town of Sverdlikovo into the Sumy region, they can maintain their foothold — at least for the coming months. However, the Kremlin doesn’t appear willing to enter negotiations while Ukrainian forces remain on Russian territory.

Meduza is careful in working with data, but mistakes are still possible, and perhaps even inevitable. If you spot one, please let us know by sending an email to [e-mail]. Thank you!

Read our previous combat map

• Enter, Pyongyang Russian forces close in on Pokrovsk, threatening all of Donbas, as North Korean troops join the fight in the Kursk Region