Janus Henderson's Hetts nears a recession watch as data starts to 'wobble'

Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

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10 hari yang lalu 1:03:27

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Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson Investors, says the stock market entered the year in "goldilocks mode," at all-time highs and with positive conditions, but the late-cycle economy is facing policy drag and "a lot of those risks have teeth," which is bringing recession back into the conversation. Hetts adds that with a market near record levels, it makes the current rally feel fragile, as if it's easier to move down than keep climbing, and he says there may be a correction as the market re-assesses its current standing, which could create new buying opportunities. Allison Hadley discusses a Howdy.com survey showing that many Americans would leave their job if it weren’t for the need for their current health insurance coverage. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about fairness in setting up gift and legacy accounts for grandchildren, and Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, talks stocks in the Market Call.

1764 episode

#Trading #Business #Chuck Jaffe #Investing #Money #Personalfinance #Money Life With Chuck Jaffe

Janus Henderson's Hetts nears a recession watch as data starts to 'wobble'

Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

11 subscribers

published 10 hari yang lalu

MP3•Beranda episode

1764 episode

#Trading #Business #Chuck Jaffe #Investing #Money #Personalfinance #Money Life With Chuck Jaffe

Semua episode

1
Leuthold's Ramsey: 'Price is a fundamental' and could drive inflation and recession 58:41

15 hours yang lalu58:41

58:41

Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at The Leuthold Group , says that stock market swings have had increasing impact on economic growth and the rate of inflation in recent years — "Price is a fundamental," he says — and that means the current downturn in the stock market could deliver a recession. At the same time, if the market moves from current correction-levels to bear-market levels, he expects inflation to then ease up and to help drive a potential recovery. Charles Rotblut, editor at AAII Journal, discusses the latest investor sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors , which just hit its third straight week with bearish sentiment above 57 percent and bullish sentiment below 20 percent, a three-week stretch in both numbers that has never been seen since the survey started in 1987. While sentiment levels didn't hit these levels during events like the Dot-com Crash and the Great Financial Crisis, Rotblut noted that when sentiment reaches bearish extremes, the market typically has rebounded in six months, which bodes well for a recovery before year's end. In the NAVigator segment, Roxanna Islam, head of sector and industry research at VettaFi , discusses the Invesco Closed-End Fund Income Composite ETF — which she considers the "Standard & Poor's 500 for closed-end funds" — as it celebrates its 15th anniversary and crosses $800 million in assets.…

1
ICI's Antoniewicz: Consumers, facing tariffs, hold the keys to the economy 57:31

1 day yang lalu57:31

57:31

Shelly Antoniewicz, chief economist at the Investment Company Institute , says that consumers currently expect that they will wind up paying about half of the costs added to goods by tariffs — meaning they will pay 10 percent more when an item is facing a 20 percent tariff — and she says that a cutback in consumer spending would dramatically change the economic picture, since it makes up about two-thirds of GDP. Along with declining consumer sentiment, Antoniewicz says that investors are reacting to current market performance and heading toward money-market and bond funds, waiting before they are willing to buy into the dips. Speaking of concerned and conservative investors, Todd Rosenbluth — head of research at VettaFi — picks an ultra-short and ultra-safe bond fund as his "ETF of the Week," and Chuck recounts three conversations this week with friends who are dealing with the market differently as they struggle to find some peace of mind amid current concerns. Plus, Chip Lupo discusses a WalletHub survey which showed that Americans can agree on something, namely that tipping is wildly out of control .…

1
Invesco's Hooper: Recession odds grow daily, but 'uncertainty' is the buzzword 1:00:51

3 hari yang lalu1:00:51

1:00:51

Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco , says she is still holding to the optimistic scenarios she had entering 2025, but she acknowledges that the potential for a recession grows by the day, given tariffs, a potential resurgence in inflation, fiscal pressures resulting in cuts to government spending and more. Still, Hooper's base case remains positive and she warns that investors can't afford to get spooked out of the market by short-term temporary declines. Jordan Grumet of the "Earn and Invest" podcast, discusses his new book, "The Purpose Code: How to Unlock Meaning, Maximize Happiness and Leave a Lasting Legacy," plus Aaron Schumm of Vestwell talks about how consumers and workers can improve their savings — and American could make a dent into its savings crisis — by using new platforms that allow money to be set aside not just into retirement plans but for college savings, emergency funds, health care and more.…

1
NewEdge's Nick: Despite current woes, don't start rooting for rate cuts 58:19

4 hari yang lalu58:19

58:19

Brian Nick, head of portfolio strategy at NewEdge Wealth , says nervous investors should not be rooting for interest rate cuts, because they would be cheering for the economy to get worse, and the stock market would likely suffer as that happens. On the current suffering, Nick is not cowed by the last few days, noting that the "abrupt switch" in markt mentality is not the end of the bull market and economic growth cycles. He says the chances of recession are up, but that investors should diversify their way through the bumpy road ahead. Gregory Harmon, founder and president at Dragonfly Capital Management , says the market remains in "a really positive range," and the current consolidation isn't an issue until or unless the market starts making lower lows, signalling a potentially more significant and lasting change of direction. Cody Barbo, chief executive officer at TrustandWill.com discusses the site's 2025 Estate Planning Report, which showed that 20 percent of Americans have "completely abandoned traditional American Dream ideals."…

1
Robertson's Garretty: What we've got is 'a really good-looking economy' 1:00:04

5 hari yang lalu1:00:04

1:00:04

Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management , says the economy remains on a solid growth path, generating new job creation and steady unemployment that should prop the economy up against trouble. That said, she acknowledges that consumers are scared and may be starting to hesitate, which could quickly change the circumstances. Garretty notes that the stock market is pricing in what it expects to see from the economy in roughly nine months, and concerns over tariffs and geopolitical issues are leading people to want to make knee-jerk reactions before the market has a chance to really digest and sort out what lies ahead. Those reactionary impulses are also showing up in consumers, as witnessed by John Egan , who discusses a new study from Creditcards.com , which shows that nearly 20 percent of Americans are "doom spending" in order to get ahead of tariff-driven price increases. Chuck takes a listener's question about whether current conditions really do represent a buying opportunity, and David Trainer of New Constructs puts a mid-cap fund that gets a four-star rating from morningstar in The Danger Zone.…

1
NDR's Clissold: This market needs to price in 'an uncertainty discount' 57:02

8 hari yang lalu57:02

57:02

Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research says that he expects the stock market to back off of its current "pretty elevated" levels as it prices in a discount for uncertainty. "Whether or not you think in the long run that changes by the Administration are good or bad, while we go through them means that probably valuations need to be lower," Clissold says, noting that the discount will be accompanied by choppier market action, heightened volatility and more pullbacks and corrections. Further, Clissold notes that the situation could last until the economy digests a workforce shift as public workers move into jobs in the private sector and consumers curb spending during the adjustment period. D.R. Barton Jr., director of market research for the Foundation for the Study of Cycles , says the current cycle may be changing, and he is watching whether the Standard & Poor's 500 can stay above its 200-day moving average, which it has been close to breaking the last few days. Barton says the pullback could reach the point of being a correction -- a decline of 10 percent or more -- if the trend line is broken, but he thinks the market needs to take a breather and re-gather itself before it can resume making real progress. Kimberly Flynn, president of XA Investments , says healthy borrowers and minimal defaults make the loan space attractive, with concerns over tariffs and Federal Reserve policies leading to more volatility but also new opportunities.…

1
Cambria's Faber: Cheap, global stocks are booming 'and most people don't own them' 59:12

9 hari yang lalu59:12

59:12

Meb Faber , chief executive and chief investment officer at Cambria Investments , says that the cheap global stock markets are up 15 percent already this year, where the United States has been flat — "if you heard about geo-politics, you'd assume the opposite" — and he says that investors should be moving away from domestic issues to buy more global companies. Faber promises — and delivers — "a warning, an idea, a curiosity and something you've never heard of before" in today's Big Interview, and also gives his take on how to approach current events, asset allocation, cryptocurrencies and more. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, also goes global on this show, looking to China internet stocks — one of those booming global markets — vettafi.com with his ETF of the Week. Plus Stash Graham, managing director at Graham Capital Wealth Management , talks stock investing in the Market Call.…

1
Janus Henderson's Hetts nears a recession watch as data starts to 'wobble' 1:03:27

10 hari yang lalu1:03:27

1:03:27

Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson Investors , says the stock market entered the year in "goldilocks mode," at all-time highs and with positive conditions, but the late-cycle economy is facing policy drag and "a lot of those risks have teeth," which is bringing recession back into the conversation. Hetts adds that with a market near record levels, it makes the current rally feel fragile, as if it's easier to move down than keep climbing, and he says there may be a correction as the market re-assesses its current standing, which could create new buying opportunities. Allison Hadley discusses a Howdy.com survey showing that many Americans would leave their job if it weren’t for the need for their current health insurance coverage . Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about fairness in setting up gift and legacy accounts for grandchildren, and Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets , talks stocks in the Market Call.…

1
Voya's Stein: The timing of policy changes is moving the markets 58:59

11 hari yang lalu58:59

58:59

Eric Stein, head of investments and chief investment officer for fixed income at Voya Investment Management , says that the "sequencing of policies" is impacting the market now, noting that if the Trump Administration had done supply-side reforms and de-regulation first, it would boost the market, but instead the first moves have been tariffs, which has made the market outlook tougher. Still, he's expecting a modestly positive year, buoyed in part by the market's "self-correcting mechanism" that will react to tariff policy and impact how and how long those policies stay in place. Veteran technical analyst Martin Pring of Pring Research and the Intermarket Review says that the primary trend he's seeing in the market remains bullish, and the signs that we are nearing a market top are balanced by indicators showing there's more room to run. David Callaway, founder of Callaway Climate Insights , discusses how energy stocks could be set up for a fall ; they have boomed as an AI-adjacent play because artificial intelligence requires high levels of power, but got hammered when the market was disappointed in the results at companies like Nvidia. Plus Andrew Graham of Jackson Square Capital talks stock investing in the Market Call.…

1
EY's Daco: The weight of uncertainty now is testing a strong economy 1:00:52

12 hari yang lalu1:00:52

1:00:52

Greg Daco, chief economist at EY, says the economic numbers are strong, but the high level of uncertainty has it nearing a tipping point and making recession more likely. He sees the potential for consumer issues and a recession risking, and says there is a real -- but modest -- chance of stagflation putting the Federal Reserve in a real policy bind. Sarah Wolfe, senior economist and strategist for thematic and macro investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, talks about what other economists are thinking, as she highlights the March Economic Policy Survey , released today by the National Association for Business Economics . David Trainer of New Constructs revisits Carvana, a stock which has defied gravity for over a year; he says it can't shake its status as a zombie stock headed for a massive decline. John Barr, portfolio manager for the Needham Funds , discusses his aggressive growth strategy.…

1
Statman: The news is creating psychological problems, not financial ones 1:00:05

15 hari yang lalu1:00:05

1:00:05

Finance professor Meir Statman , author of "A Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral Finance," says the headlines and geopolitical risks that have investors and consumers scrambling for a plan of action are not that different from past times, and that taking a deep breath and calming down will be a lot better than altering financial plans or stocking up and filling "that refrigerator you keep in the garage." Statman acknowledges that inflation is scary — particularly because it removes a measure of certainty from pricing — but says that acting scared has never served investors and consumers well. In The NAVigator, John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors , is back and answering more listener questions, this time on business-development companies, highlighting how they are different from closed-end funds but should be included with closed-end funds for portfolio-construction purposes. In the Market Call, Daniel Dusina, director of investments at Blue Chip Partners talks about how he finds "underappreciated quality companies."…

1
John Waggoner says impulsive moves won't ease the financial pains of geopolitics 59:06

16 hari yang lalu59:06

59:06

Veteran personal finance journalist John Waggoner stops by to answer the questions that experts are getting at the grocery store, the doctor's office or anywhere someone can inquire about whether current events — and fears over the potential future of tariffs, Social Security, Medicare and more — need to be addressed by financial moves now. Waggoner notes that people who crave some certainty and comfort can make moves — like considering annuities to bolster retirement income — but he suggested keeping changes to a minimum and avoiding knee-jerk reactions. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi , looks at bitcoin mining — and compares the investment allocation possibilities of the crypto world versus gold and gold miners — with his pick for "ETF of the Week." Will Rhind, chief executive officer at GraniteShares talks about disruptive stocks — his firm runs the Nasdaq Select Disruptors ETF — and business-development companies in the Market Call.…

1
Touchstone's Thomas: Slow earnings growth, geopolitics will mute market gains 56:36

17 hari yang lalu56:36

56:36

Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments , says that he entered the year cautious given political uncertainty and the impact of tariffs and other new policies, and that the market has moved from high levels of optimism more towards his level of concern. He's taking a wait-and-see approach to international investing now, and he's expecting higher volatility with less progress while the market sorts it out. Where the market still expects double-digit earnings growth — a key driver if returns are to achieve that level — Thomas sees more muted growth and a possible correction as forecasts are missed, leading to a year in which the market's best outcome would be high single-digit returns. Allison Hadley discusses a BadCredit.Org survey which showed that Americans say that inflation has made the cost of friendship significantly higher; more than one third of Americans say they are isolating due to cost of living . In the Market Call, Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar , talks about ETFs and where active and passive strategies offer potential advantages.…

1
MarketLife's Grimes: Technicals 'do not look right' for the rally to roll on 1:01:02

18 hari yang lalu1:01:02

1:01:02

Veteran technical analyst Adam Grimes of MarketLife says that the market "just doesn't look right or feel right" to keep rolling along. It's not the kind of market that can support a big move upward, and is more likely to spend the year range-bound, in a protracted "chop and flop." That doesn't mean Grimes is down on the market, because he says this could be "a healthy psychological reset;" as that reset happens, Grimes said he would cut back on active and aggressive moves and stay patient looking for declines that will represent buying opportunities. Susan Fahy, chief digital officer at VantageScore , discusses the firm's CreditGauge measure, which shows credit card balances and consumer delinquencies on the rise, although at modest levels; overall indebtedness declined, driven primarily by consumers paying down existing mortgage debt and not buying new homes. Plus,small-and mid-cap portfolio manager Lance Cannon of Hood River Capital Management returns to the Market Call, and Chuck answers a listener's question about building the conservative side of an asset allocation while worrying about sequence-of-return risk.…

1
Glenview Trust's Stone: Good news is baked into market, making it easy to disrupt 59:21

19 hari yang lalu59:21

59:21

Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust , says that the stock market has priced in so much good news that it makes him want to be more cautious, looking into headline risks for potential value opportunities. Stone notes that the stock market has had previous periods with three strongly positive, consecutive years — and it could complete that process again this year — but it makes him nervous that the market could adjust and re-set. That's not pushing him out of stocks, but has muted his expectations. Charles Rotblut, editor at AAII Journal , discusses the organization's investor-sentiment survey, which shows that nervousness is on the rise, but so is bullish sentiment. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs looks at large-cap value funds and finds an attractive pick this week — rather than looking for the standard Danger Zone trouble spot — noting that even in a category that is doing well, top potential performers stand out. Plus, author Ross White discusses his recent book, " The Tree That Bends: How a Flexible Mind Can Help You Thrive. "…

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