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Decision Making (EP.02)
Manage episode 287177031 series 2508179
Philip Tetlock’s research on the qualities of Super-forecasters explains why forecasting is hard and how diverse models and systematic thinking can help close the gap.
We discuss:
- Improving predictions by regularly updating data
- The Brier Score and why it really matters
- Why larger samples permit more accurate short term predictions
- The difficulties with the “Long Now” narrative
Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.
22 episode
Manage episode 287177031 series 2508179
Philip Tetlock’s research on the qualities of Super-forecasters explains why forecasting is hard and how diverse models and systematic thinking can help close the gap.
We discuss:
- Improving predictions by regularly updating data
- The Brier Score and why it really matters
- Why larger samples permit more accurate short term predictions
- The difficulties with the “Long Now” narrative
Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.
22 episode
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