Macro Mondays | LIVE | Middle Eastern tensions add Macroeconomic troubles | 07|10|24

World of Oil Derivatives

The week started with weak data, with global manufacturing PMIs contracting for the third straight month in September and with new orders dropping globally at the fastest rate in 11 months. But then services PMIs data surged higher, with the U.S. data at 54.9 (est 51.7) an 8-sigma beat.
On Friday, payrolls unexpectedly surged +254K, way above expectations and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Despite being fuelled by 785k government jobs, U.S. yields surged along with the dollar. The 2 year yield had its largest weekly gain in 2 years, and USDJPY its biggest weekly gain in 15 years.
European data on the other hand continues to weaken and with Eurozone inflation now at 1.8% (below the ECBs 2% target) expect more aggressive rate cuts in Europe, and a weaker EURUSD. With Middle East tensions rising, and China back from Golden week holidays expect more volatility this week.
Uncertainty in the middle east has led to a an increase in risk premiums and rises in crude oil prices. As costs of inputs increase the average consumer's struggles will likely increase.
Key data releases this week are:
Earnings week
Wednesday- FED minutes, 10-yr bond auction
Thursday - US CPI (est 2.3%), German retail sales
Friday - U.S. PPI, consumer sentiment, UK GDP & IP, Canada payrolls